Florence, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

332
FXUS66 KLOX 291131
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
431 AM PDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...29/137 AM.

Dramatic warming is expected today and Friday, with above normal
temperatures into the weekend. Highs Friday will near 100 degrees
across inland valleys and deserts. Expect marine layer clouds and
fog each night and morning, becoming confined to the coastal
plains by Friday. There is a slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms this weekend, mostly for the San Gabriel Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...29/250 AM.

The cutoff low, that brought cool temperatures and high clouds to
the region yesterday, is now centered around 300 miles to our
south over the coastal waters, and is expected to stall just west
of Baja California through Saturday. Concurrently, a ridge of
high pressure will set up over the southwestern United States over
the next few days, and 500 mb heights will climb today through
Friday. These two very different synoptic features will both
impact our regional weather into the weekend. Notably with this
pattern, northern areas (such as San Luis Obispo County) will see
higher pressure than southern areas, where the dampening
influence of the nearby low will be greater. Thus some of the
typically warmest locations across the Southland (i.e. the
western San Fernando Valley) will not be the main focus of the
heat.

Friday will be the warmest day, with temperatures 8 to 16 degrees
above normal, and highs in the 90s to just above 100 degrees
across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Some calender
day records will be in play Friday, most notably for Paso Robles
where the current daily record is 102. Heat Advisories have been
issued Friday for interior San Luis Obispo County and the Cuyama
Valley. There is still around a 30 percent chance for Heat
Advisories for southern valleys, based on the latest forecast for
the cutoff low`s influence.

Saturday as the ridge starts to break down and onshore flow
increases, temperatures are expected to trend downwards.
Ensembles still show a moderate range of outcome for the
temperatures forecast, however 2 to 8 degrees of cooling seems
most likely. The largest drop in temperatures will be north of
Point Conception, and some coastal areas south of Point Conception
may see little change in temperatures.

This low will shuttle moisture into the region, and bring PWAT
values of around an inch to LA and Ventura Counties starting
Saturday afternoon. Showers (including thunderstorms) will be
possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, south of Point
Conception. The greater chance of precipitation will be during
the afternoons for the San Gabriel Mountains. The high pressure
aloft will compress the marine layer, thus clouds will be mostly
confided to the coastal plains on Friday. Dense fog will be
possible in the shallow marine layer, including for the coastal
waters, most likely Friday night into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...29/328 AM.

As the current cutoff low travels eastward over land on Sunday,
500 mb heights will fall rapidly. Then on Monday, another low
pressure system is expected to drop down along the California
Coast, clearing out of the region by Wednesday. However there is
little model agreement for the upper level pattern late Monday
onward, thus overall confidence for mid next week is on the low
end. Even so, temperatures are likely to cool each day through
Tuesday, when most highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal and
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. By Wednesday, most ensembles favor a
gradual warming trend, that will last through the end of the week.

Moisture from the current cutoff low will sustain a 10 to 20
percent chance of showers or thunderstorms through Sunday night,
focused south of Point Conception, where PWATs may exceed 1 inch.
The greatest chance of convection will still be over the San
Gabriel Mountains. Early next week, depending on the location and
axis of the next trough, showers and thunderstorms may again be
possible, but the likelihood has been trending down with the
latest model guidance.

Areas of gusty winds are possible early next week with this
pattern, but it will depend on the path of the low pressure
system. More wind details will be available as we get closer.
Overnight to morning low clouds and fog will occur at times, but
are favored to become less widespread by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1131Z.

Around 0713Z, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep at KLAX. The
top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of
18 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF Package. Highest
confidence for desert terminals (KPMD, KWJF) and lowest for
coastal and valley sites. Good confidence in MVFR cigs for LA/VTA
county terminals through the morning. Most uncertain in return of
cigs for coastal sites overnight into tomorrow morning.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. MVFR cigs are expected
to persist through the morning, with clearing by around 21Z (+/-
2 hours). Low confidence in Cigs returning after 03Z Fri. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. Departure times of
cigs may be off +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...29/1249 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions with
localized GALE force wind gusts are expected through Thursday
morning. From Thursday afternoon into the late night hours, strong
SCA level sustained winds with GALE force wind gusts will be
common across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, Gale force wind gusts will
likely be confined to far western portions - thus will let the
morning shift decide on whether or not to upgrade to a GALE
warning due to lack of spatial coverage. Thereafter, SCA conds
are expected to linger through Friday morning.

For the weekend, conditions are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through Saturday, with increasing chances for SCA winds
and seas into early next week. Higher confidence in seas reaching
SCA thresholds.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there will be a
lull in winds (below SCA) early Thursday morning for portions of
PZZ645, before increasing to strong SCA sustained winds with GALE
force wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Conds
are generally expected to remain below SCA criteria through the
weekend. However, there is a 30% chance of SCA level wind gusts
during the afternoon hours on Friday. Low-to-moderate chance for
SCA winds and seas early next week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 10-20% chance of SCA
level wind gusts across far western portions of the channel Thu
afternoon/eve. Moderate-to-high confidence in conds remaining
below SCA levels for the weekend.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
moderate-to-high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA
levels through Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 38-343>345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through
      late tonight for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox